A Case-Control Measurement Study of OSINT Source Effectiveness for Critical Infrastructure Defense
Case-control study across 54 confirmed critical-infrastructure attacks identifies which public OSINT feeds actually delivered early-warning indicators — enabling evidence-based threat-intel spending.
Summary written by editorial AI · Source link below
arXiv:2608.21471v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Defenders of critical infrastructure (CI) subscribe to many public open-source intelligence (OSINT) feeds without an empirical basis for which feeds actually precede attacks. We provide one. Across 54 confirmed CI cyberattacks from 2010 through 2024 spanning twelve named CI sectors plus a cross-sector category (consolidation rules in Section IV), paired with 12 null-control vulnerability cases drawn from the same source space, we audit per-source
Editorial Analysis
Most enterprises subscribe to numerous OSINT feeds without knowing which ones actually provide advance warning; this study offers the first empirical basis for rationalising threat-intelligence investments.
Map your current OSINT subscriptions against the study's effectiveness data and sunset feeds that showed no pre-attack indicator value.
Empirical research shows most OSINT feeds fail to deliver early warning before critical-infrastructure attacks — an opportunity to optimise threat-intelligence spend.
Forward-looking interpretation drafted by editorial AI under human review — not a reproduction of the source. See methodology.
External link — opens at arXiv Crypto & Security in a new tab.
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